How to Build Your Own Betting Model

football pitch model strategy

The universal betting formula is impossible to find simply due to the fact it does not exist.

Punters, however, can do their best to get as close as possible to create one by custom building their own betting model, tailored fit specifically for their needs and requirements. Creating a successful and fully functional betting model takes time and devotion but it’s bound to bring rewarding results in the end.

Once you get to know yourself as a punter and the market as a whole, a solid betting model will help you win in the long run. 

Definition of a Betting Model

Fitting a betting model as a term into a bracket is not easier than finding the universal working and winning betting formula but a definition exists. A betting model is basically a system which uses unbiased and objective statistical data to reveal value in betting selections that apparently offer little to no value to most of the bettors.

In order to acquire a profitable betting model, one needs to go through a thorough research in order to get familiar with ins and outs of the betting areas of their interest. Betting specialists around the globe have come to a somewhat universal pattern and a set of guidelines that are supposed to help punters custom make their own betting models.

Taking the time to go through six different steps will most certainly be a worthwhile effort so here’s what you need to do:

  • Set a target betting market
  • Analyse the stats
  • Gather your statistics
  • Betting model exceptions
  • Building the betting model
  • Testing & Analysis

 

The first step requires the punters to decide what will be the focus of interest. The players first need to determine the sport to bet on before moving on to a specific league or competition. Ultimately, choosing a right market to build your betting model around is equally if not even most important. The players are advised to narrow down their selections and focus on a single league and, preferably, on a single market – Over/Under goals, Both Teams to Score etc.

Setting up the two-part statistics section is arguably the most crucial aspect of a betting model. First, you need to do a statistical analysis and determine how far back do you want to go in terms of gathering the stats. Last matches will play a more important role compared to the numbers from the previous season. The obvious reason is that a team will go through a change in the midseason by selling and buying players, or others getting injured. Once analysed, the statistical data needs to be gathered which thankfully is the easiest part of the process.

The exceptions to the betting model should be derived from the statistical analysis as they include the absence of key players, possibly unfavorable weather and match conditions, a psychological aspect of a losing/winning team etc.

Here you come to the biggest part – creating the betting model. All you need here is the basic knowledge of Excel or any other program such as Maple, MATLAB or Freemat that will help you with handling all the data.

And ultimately, you may have a perfect model on paper but testing and analysis are what you need to make sure your model is functional. This gives you a chance to make any necessary repairs before you dig knee-deep into the betting world with your new model.