We look at value betting and how that can help you profit over time
You might have heard the term “value” bandied around when it comes to betting. Somebody might say that a team “represents value” at 2/1 but what does this actually mean?
What is value betting?
This is simply a case of placing a bet where you think the odds are too big for that given selection. So you might find Rafael Nadal is 3/1 to win the French Open final although you give him a 50% chance of winning. This then represents value in your eyes and it’s a case of betting accordingly.
It should be noted that “value” is a subjective term. It in no way means that a bet is a “banker” or “dead cert” but it’s a great way of betting on a long-term basis.
How do I find value bets?
By making sure you have several bookmaker accounts as the odds can often vary from one operator to another. One bookmaker might have Manchester City at 6/4 to win a game and another might chalk up 2/1.
Then it’s a case of studying the markets and unearthing a bet where you feel the bookmaker has got things wrong. Perhaps the bookie is pricing up a selection too short because they expect it to be well-backed. Once again, value can be found.
Will I win betting on value selections?
It really depends on several factors. Remember, you are using your own judgement here, so it often depends on how good your judgement is! It often pays to bet on the sports where you have the most knowledge and make a note of the bets you are placing and the success being generated.
If you find a sport or market where you’re experiencing success, then you know that you are getting plenty of value from this type of betting.
What if I’m betting on losing value bets?
It’s important to remember that finding the value doesn’t always equate to backing winners. If you back a 10/1 shot ten times on the bounce, you only need that bet to come in once to make a profit. Therefore, you have to remain philosophical if you are betting at big odds sometimes.
What odds are value bets available at?
It can be short, medium and long prices. For example, there might be a horse at even money where you feel it has a 75% chance of winning a particular race. Therefore, you might try and double your money on the basis that it’s likelier to win than the odds suggest.
You might find something at 5/1 where you feel the odds should be closer to 5/2 and bet accordingly. Then there are the bigger prices such as 33/1 or 66/1. Now you obviously can’t expect to have a big win ratio with these types of selections but betting on them consistently might see you get an overall profit over time.
What about a staking plan?