Betting as a process of placing money on a chosen result of a sporting event has a simple aim, which is to help you generate profit on regular basis.
Consistent betting wins are difficult to achieve, but not impossible. This is where a betting model kicks in as a system that is intended to help you identify elements with which you can predetermine if a certain outcome is profitable or not.
What’s a Betting Model and how to Build It?
A Betting Model is a mathematical system which determines the probability for all outcomes in a particular match, without a biased look at the teams involved. A betting model will assess a team’s ability to win rather more accurately and help you get an extra edge on bookmakers.
Betting Models are not easy to build and they often require some understanding of mathematics and programming. In order to fully understand them, you need to have insights in quantitative risk assessment methods such as Actuarial Control Cycle, which is used by big insurance companies around the globe.
Similar to basic elements of the risk assessment method, a betting model will contain a couple of different features. In order to have a successful betting method built you need to:
- Define the problem
- Build the solution
- Monitor results
- Be Professional
- Be Aware of External Forces
The aforementioned five elements that help you form your betting model are divided into the total of eight steps you need to take in order to make sure you have a working betting model.
- Aim of the betting model
The most common mistake a punter can make is to adopt a generic aim of the betting model, as it can often lead to players getting stuck under the numbers and getting their vision blurred, losing focus of their more specific goals.
Narrow focus is required and a specific aim of the betting model will only help you be more successful with other steps of the way.
- Select the metric
Same step is applied in the Actuarial Control Cycle when you need to make your investigation fit in a quantifiable metric.
- Collecting data
This step is self-explanatory as each model depends on the collected data you will subsequently put into your algorithms to analyses. You can of course do data collecting yourself, but there are too many of the services which are providing data solutions that you can easily be saved of all the trouble.
- Form of the Model
Interchangeable with step three, format of the model is where the math come into play. One basic model is the one that looks at the past three matches, a simple but effective way to give you valuable insight before you go all complicated.
Self-questioning is imperative and if you don’t make assumptions of your model and try to foresee the possible problems and issues, they will hit you hard and even before you know it.
- Build the working model
This step is about the actual building process through tools and calculators which are provided through Excel, Java, VBA and others.
- Test the model
The efficiency of a model needs to be put to a test so that you will be able to see if any of the previous steps should be reconsidered or edited.
- Monitor the results
Once you have found an adequate model which works, it needs to be constantly monitored and maintained through time so that you can get valuable information of its success rate and efficiency.